PREV'AIR pollution

PM 10 >> Verification

Verification of the PM 10 forecasts

During each - summer or winter - forecast period, statistical indicators are computed, to compare pollutant forecast concentrations to available observation data - thus assessing the model capacity within PREV'AIR to forecast air quality. Every available measurements on the forecast period are taken into account. The statistics are computed separately for rural stations and suburban stations, for each lag of the daily forecast (from D-1 to D+2).

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Scores sur la moyenne journalière du PM10

  Lag of the forecast Rural
stations
Suburban
stations
Observed mean (µg/m3)D - 116.24
(Nbr Obs: 12003)
19.78
(Nbr Obs:22062)
D + 016.25
(Nbr Obs: 12002)
19.79
(Nbr Obs:22065)
D + 116.25
(Nbr Obs: 12004)
19.79
(Nbr Obs:22067)
D + 216.24
(Nbr Obs: 12003)
19.79
(Nbr Obs:22073)
Simulated mean (µg/m3) D - 116.214.43
D + 015.9314.24
D + 115.9514.28
D + 216.0514.38
Normalized Bias (%)D - 10.47-24.84
D + 0-1.26-25.87
D + 1-1.1-25.69
D + 2-0.33-25.17
NMSE (%)D - 145.4758.51
D + 046.659.33
D + 148.1459.63
D + 249.4260.11
CorrelationD - 10.690.55
D + 00.680.54
D + 10.660.54
D + 20.640.53
E50% (%)D - 140.1629.34
D + 038.3228.28
D + 137.528.12
D + 236.1727.72